The conspiracy mindset

Warning signs, explained in less than 5 minutes

Behavioral psychology & social science have mapped defining traits of conspiracy belief

The attention economy and social media dynamics that rule online infrastructure have created an asymmetric landscape against disseminating science to a wider audience. One of the most dire consequences of these asymmetries are the popularity and spread of anti-science conspiracy myths, increased institutional distrust and subsequent attacks against scientists online.

Why do people believe in (often baseless or even absurd) conspiracy theories?

I wanted to quickly summarize what scientists know about the psychological and behavioral drivers of conspiracy beliefs.

Here is bite-size version:

• Uncertainty intolerance:

Uncertainty alters the way how evidence for and against conspiracy theories is evaluated (van Prooijen, 2013). Conspiracy belief is correlated with stronger “illusion of explanatory depth” (Vitriol & Marsh, 2018) and satisfies a need for cognitive closure (Marchlewska et al., 2018)

• False pattern recognition

Believers in conspiracy theories display hypersensitive agency detection (Douglas et al., 2016) and increased illusory pattern perception (van Prooijen et al., 2018) on top of other intuitive biases (Binnendyk & Pennycook, 2022). Conspiratorial thinkers tend to show poor analytical thinking skills (Swami et al., 2014) and have a tendency to jumping to conclusions (Pytlik, 2020)

• Overconfidence & Narcissism

Overconfidence in one’s own cognitive ability often underlies conspiratorial belief (Pennycook et al., 2022). People who reject scientific consensus think that they know the most about science (despite actually know the least) (Light et al., 2022). Conspiratorial belief is also related with narcissism (Cichocka et al., 2022)

• Tribal signaling & identity

Desire to be seen as original or unique (Imhoff & Lamberty, 2017) and to satisfy social identities or help achieve collective action (Cichocka et al., 2016). Preference to see themselves as “critical freethinkers” to positively distinguish themselves from “the sheeple” (van Prooijen, 2019)

• Perceived outgroup threat

Perception that society’s fundamental values are threatened by social change (Federico, 2018) Believers often feel a hostile outgroup is conspiring against a perceiver’s ingroup (Imhoff & Lamberty, 2018). Conspiratorial thinking is associated with common motivations that drive intergroup conflict (Douglas, 2017). Some schizotypies are also predictive of conspiratorial belief (March et al., 2019)

• Lack of control or agency

Belief in conspiracy theories is intimately connected with feelings of fear, lack of control, or powerlessness (Imhoff and Bruder, 2014) and are exacerbated in times of social crisis (van Prooijen & Douglas, 2017). Social or political ostracism and marginalization also increases people’s political conspiracy beliefs (Poon et al., 2020)

(Here is a case example on how influencers can manipulate conspiratorial predispositions on the Covid-19 origin topic. As always, I recommend to use the primary literature, not anecdotes, to gain a deeper understanding)

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Important before you go:

Science educators, journalists, public officials and scientists all struggle in the current environment. Many are being unjustly blamed for causing distrust in institutions or science itself. In reality they, like all of us, are just caught in between larger social, political and technological forces at play, reshaping media and fragmenting our info spheres. 

Don’t get me wrong: Science communication is difficult and even basic mistakes are all too common (don’t feed the trolls, don’t inadvertently amplify falsehoods when debunking, don’t create a false equivalency by platforming cranks for pseudo-neutrality or political reasons etc). 

There is a need for institutions and scientists to adapt their communication styles to the information age. We have to do our part in bringing science to society, reason to discourse, and epistemic clarity to our broken info sphere.

How to succeed in that nobody has really figured out yet (I will write something about this in the future). 

But understanding what existential, social and epistemic motivations fuel the anti-science conspiracy beliefs we are up against is certainly a first step.

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You can download a high-resolution pdf of the infographic here:

Conspiracy Infographic

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